US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Closes April 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
30% / 33%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
32%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?
April
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1749121
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Venue Divergence
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