Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4?
Closed April 4, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 50% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH +0.1% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$501K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $501K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762324
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 1, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
42%
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -28.5pp
58% → 30%
Apr 2, 2026
Peak probability
65% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this