Markets/Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

Data as of Mar 29, 2026, 06:08 AM UTC

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES

57%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

42% / 43%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

42%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 43%99%

Buy YES@ 43¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-2.5)" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Spread: Hornets (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1766133

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