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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)
Share on X

1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)

Closed March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$80

Liquidity

$0

Bid / Ask

0% / 1%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $80 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1782363

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this