ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)
Share on X

Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1782526

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+57.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

90%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +47.5pp

43% → 90%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this