ForecastMind
Markets/1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
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1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES
51%NO

Volume 24h

$213

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

47% / 52%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Full event →
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
52%
1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
50%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
48%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)
44%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
41%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 50%99%
Buy YES@ 50¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 51¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $213 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786810

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.