Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?
Closed April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$393K
Liquidity
$795K
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $393K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792441
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
68%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: +18.5pp
66% → 85%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this