Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.4pp below current market price; market at 27% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.4% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
26% / 28%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1795679
This event has 2 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 27%, April 30, 2026: 16%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by Jun
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
27% YES (+1.5pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this