ForecastMind
Markets/Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Share on X

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Closes April 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$254K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

14% / 15%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.9pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $254K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1797341

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. April 30: 26%, April 15: 14%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~60%.

Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
26%

Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

14%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-18.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +7.0pp

30% → 37%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

19% YES (-3.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this