ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Hornets (-16.5)
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Spread: Hornets (-16.5)

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

52%YES
49%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$57K

Bid / Ask

51% / 52%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-16.5)" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Hornets (-16.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1797731

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-13.5): 62%, Spread: Hornets (-15.5): 56%, Spread: Hornets (-16.5): 52%.

Spread: Hornets (-13.5)
62%
Spread: Hornets (-15.5)
56%

Spread: Hornets (-16.5)

52%

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 52%99%
Buy YES@ 52¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 49¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this