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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5
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Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$14

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Sam Merrill: Rebounds O/U 2.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1798770

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+15.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+15.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this