ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?
Share on X

Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

64%YES
37%NO

Volume 24h

$41

Liquidity

$220

Bid / Ask

58% / 69%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

64%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 64%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1808733

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 64%99%
Buy YES@ 64¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO@ 37¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this