ForecastMind
Markets/SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
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SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

Closes August 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$73K

Bid / Ask

96% / 96%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on August 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1809418

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket96%anchor
Manifold——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢
Edge

+3.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+3.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this