ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
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Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

53%YES
48%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

53% / 54%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

54%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Bulls (-3.5)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Spread: Bulls (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1817678

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Bulls (-3.5): 53%, Spread: Bulls (-4.5): 49%, Spread: Bulls (-5.5): 45%.

Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

53%
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
49%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5)
45%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

53% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

54% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 53%99%
Buy YES@ 53¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 48¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this