Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2028
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
18% / 20%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818150
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✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Peak probability
25% YES — highest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Current
23% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this