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Markets/Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
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Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$80K

Liquidity

$143K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+29.0pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $80K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1820098

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: 12%, April 30: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~87%.

US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
12%

US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this