Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$48K
Liquidity
$73K
Bid / Ask
43% / 44%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823780
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?: 83%, December 31, 2026: 50%, Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?: 44%.
Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Trough probability
43% YES — lowest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -12.5pp
63% → 51%
Apr 2, 2026
Peak probability
63% YES — highest in period
Apr 2, 2026
Current
44% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this