ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)
Share on X

Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

69%YES
31%NO

Volume 24h

$321K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

37% / 40%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $321K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1840571

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Pelicans (-3.5): 100%, Spread: Pelicans (-5.5): 69%, Spread: Pelicans (-6.5): 49%.

1H Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
100%

Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)

69%
Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)
49%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

56% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 69%99%
Buy YES@ 69¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 31¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this