ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Kharg Island" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Kharg Island" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

46%YES
54%NO

Volume 24h

$24

Liquidity

$103

Bid / Ask

22% / 64%

Spread

42.00pp

Expert Signal

46%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Kharg Island" this week? (April 12)" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 42.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Trump say "Kharg Island" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847728

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 46%99%
Buy YES@ 46¢

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Buy NO@ 54¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

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