ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

71%YES
30%NO

Volume 24h

$101

Liquidity

$120

Bid / Ask

55% / 86%

Spread

31.00pp

Expert Signal

70%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.2pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)" at 71% YES / 29% NO. In the last 24 hours, $101 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 70%. The bid-ask spread is 31.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 71%, NO 29%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847733

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

80% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

78% → 84%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

83% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 71%99%
Buy YES@ 71¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.7%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO@ 30¢

-1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this