ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Tube" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Tube" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$167

Bid / Ask

8% / 17%

Spread

9.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Tube" this week? (April 12)" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Trump say "Tube" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847734

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-13.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Trough probability

48% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: -18.5pp

67% → 48%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

53% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢
Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 88¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this