Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$133
Bid / Ask
19% / 24%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847737
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
57% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
42% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +14.5pp
42% → 56%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
56% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this