Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.2% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$317
Liquidity
$351
Bid / Ask
11% / 14%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $317 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847740
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
78% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
22% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: -35.0pp
78% → 43%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
34% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this