ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$654

Liquidity

$769

Bid / Ask

5% / 7%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-4.7pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $654 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847742

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+30.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +23.5pp

20% → 44%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

44% YES (+23.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this