Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Heat (-17.5)
Closed April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$334K
Liquidity
$190K
Bid / Ask
49% / 51%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Heat (-17.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $334K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Heat (-17.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1848815
This event has 17 active outcome markets. Spread: Heat (-15.5): 100%, 1H Spread: Heat (-10.5): 100%, Spread: Heat (-14.5): 100%.
Spread: Heat (-17.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 3, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 4, 2026
Biggest move: -92.0pp
92% → 0%
Apr 4, 2026
Peak probability
92% YES — highest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this