ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
Share on X

Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

47%YES
54%NO

Volume 24h

$99K

Liquidity

$98K

Bid / Ask

46% / 47%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Spurs (-2.5)" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $99K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Spurs (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1848817

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Spurs (-1.5): 52%, Spread: Spurs (-2.5): 47%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~2%.

Spread: Spurs (-1.5)
52%

Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

47%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

48% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Apr 4, 2026

Current

49% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 47%99%
Buy YES@ 47¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 53¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this