ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?
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Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?

Closed April 6, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
95%FIS
+1ppvs market 95%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.7pp above current market price; market at 94% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.3% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.3% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑
+0.7pp
Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h05:44 AM

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$226K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $226K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862450

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

98% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this