ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)
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Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

46%YES
55%NO

Volume 24h

$200K

Liquidity

$564K

Bid / Ask

46% / 47%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $200K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1872819

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5): 52%, Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5): 46%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~3%.

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5)
52%

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)

46%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

47% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 46%99%
Buy YES@ 46¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 54¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this