Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$25K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
38% / 40%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
31%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879341
This event has 11 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 12: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 12: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 12: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
36% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: -11.0pp
47% → 36%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
38% YES (+2.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this