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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Spurs (-7.5)
Share on X

Spread: Spurs (-7.5)

Closed April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
45%NO

Volume 24h

$141K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

54% / 55%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Spurs (-7.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $141K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Spurs (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1890460

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5): 100%, Spread: Spurs (-7.5): 55%, Spread: Spurs (-8.5): 51%.

1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
100%

Spread: Spurs (-7.5)

55%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)
51%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)
46%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: -6.5pp

56% → 49%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

49% YES (-6.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 45¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this