US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
Closes May 15, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil -10.0% ↓, VIX +6.7% ↑, Gold +2.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$420K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $420K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1896585
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Trough probability
38% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
54%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +26.0pp
72% → 98%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.3pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this