Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Closes April 17, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$39K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
24% / 25%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
24%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $39K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1901444
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +6.2pp
7% → 13%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
25% YES (+1.6pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this