Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
Closes April 21, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.6M
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
78% / 79%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
78%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.6M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918054
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: 78%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O: 56%, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles: O: 35%.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
40% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Trough probability
30% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
71%
Apr 15, 2026
Biggest move: +41.0pp
30% → 71%
Apr 15, 2026
Current
71% YES (+41.0pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this