ForecastMind
Markets/Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs
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Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

82%YES
19%NO

Volume 24h

$1.6M

Liquidity

$100K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.6M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1930386

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - M: 100%, Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - M: 100%, Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO: 82%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+46.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Trough probability

48% YES — lowest in period

Apr 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: +30.0pp

48% → 78%

Apr 10, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 82%99%
Buy YES@ 82¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.7%
½ Kelly1.4%
Buy NO@ 19¢

-2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this