ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
Share on X

Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

80%YES
21%NO

Volume 24h

$345K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

88% / 91%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

80%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-7.5)" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $345K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Spread: Hawks (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1933248

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 100%, Spread: Hawks (-6.5): 90%, Spread: Hawks (-10.5): 84%.

1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
100%
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
90%
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)
84%

Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

80%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
68%
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)
50%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

54% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 80%99%
Buy YES@ 80¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%
½ Kelly1.2%
Buy NO@ 20¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this