Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
Closed April 11, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$78K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $78K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1934121
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Nuggets (-10.5): 100%, Spread: Nuggets (-11.5): 51%, Spread: Nuggets (-12.5): 47%.
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Trough probability
26% YES — lowest in period
Apr 11, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
31%
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: +53.0pp
34% → 87%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
100% YES (+13.5pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this