ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
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Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

15% / 20%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-4.5)" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Hawks (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943404

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Hawks (-2.5): 22%, Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 18%, Spread: Hawks (-5.5): 17%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~31%.

Spread: Hawks (-2.5)
22%

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

18%
Spread: Hawks (-5.5)
17%
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
13%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

30% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -9.5pp

27% → 17%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

17% YES (-9.5pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this