RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$44K

Liquidity$228K

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5

100%

RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5

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RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a dr

RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1944116