Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$720

Liquidity$286K

ClosedApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)

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VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26

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Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $720 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1966106