Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$254K

Liquidity$653K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Villarreal CF

Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26

100%

Olympique de Marseille

Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26

—

Juventus FC

Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $254K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1966524