ForecastMind
Markets/1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)
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1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)

Closes April 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

49%YES
52%NO

Volume 24h

$73

Liquidity

$43K

Bid / Ask

47% / 50%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

49%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $73 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1972357

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5): 49%, Spread: Suns (-3.5): 49%, Spread: Suns (-4.5): 45%.

1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)

49%
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
49%
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
45%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 49%99%
Buy YES@ 49¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 52¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this