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Markets/Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?
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Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?

Closes July 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

18% / 36%

Spread

18.00pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.8pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 18.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1972628

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Bank of Korea increase the base rate after th: 44%, Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after th: 34%, Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate: 30%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Trough probability

14% YES — lowest in period

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: -29.0pp

50% → 21%

Apr 14, 2026

Current

32% YES (-5.5pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 34%99%
Buy YES@ 34¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 66¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this