Will White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$6K

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts fro

Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April

99%

White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to

White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 2

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Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from April 17 to Apr

Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24,

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will White House post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1976969