Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 21?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

49%

Vol 24h$7K

Liquidity$0

ClosedApr 21, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.5pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 74%, price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30: 28%, Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?: 18%.

price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April

74%

price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April

28%

price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-3.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 21?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1981824