Markets/Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Market Price

16%YES

84%NO

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$26K

Bid / Ask15% / 16%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?: 40%, May 31: 16%, April 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~41%.

Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?

40%

Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

16%

Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1999843