Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23?

Market Price

51%YES

49%NO

FM Estimate

57%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

6.1pp

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$20K

Bid / Ask50% / 52%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesApr 23, 2026

Macro fundamentals+6.1pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets26 markets

This event has 26 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 23: 100%.

price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22?

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22?

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23?

51%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1999924