ForecastMind
⊘

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
Share on X

1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

47% / 52%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786810

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5): 100%, Spread: Thunder (-11.5): 3%, Spread: Thunder (-13.5): 3%.

1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
3%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)
3%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
3%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
2%

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+50.5pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this