Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24?

Market Price

42%YES

58%NO

FM Estimate

41%

Vol 24h$12K

Liquidity$24K

Bid / Ask38% / 39%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 24, 2026

Macro fundamentals-0.2pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

8 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,0

price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on A

48%

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,0

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on A

42%

price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,0

price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on A

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-5.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2007048