Markets/Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$324K

Liquidity$256K

Bid / Ask1% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: 22%, September 30: 13%, June 30: 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~53%.

US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

22%

US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

13%

US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-6.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $324K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2009849