FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$79K

Liquidity$330K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedApr 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets. Combined YES = 200% — 100pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/

FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5

100%

Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)

100%

FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC end

FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a d

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Price History · 30 days

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $79K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2011797